U.S. Senate Race in Iowa Becoming Populist Battleground
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Daley, Campaign Manager
Roxanne Conlin for Senate
Date: March 3, 2010
Re: U.S. Senate Race in Iowa Becoming Populist Battleground
Overview:
Roxanne Conlin entered the race against Senator Charles Grassley because, like so many Iowans, she's fed up with double-digit unemployment, a rising debt and endless gridlock in Washington. Charles Grassley has been in elected office for 51 years. Roxanne's candidacy combined with powerful anti-incumbent feelings give Iowa Democrats their best chance in 30 years of reclaiming this seat.
What others are saying about Roxanne:
Conlin wants to fix D.C. 'mess' - Council Bluffs Daily Nonpariel
Conlin vows to offer Iowans a voice during Boone stop - Boone News-Republican
Conlin starts campaign 'to fix it' - Ottumwa Courier
"She's been to 66 counties. That's pretty impressive. She's taking it very seriously. She has the ability to raise sufficient funds to put on a very competitive campaign." - Senator Tom Harkin, Des Moines Register
"No one has worked harder at 'putting people over profits.'"- Congressman Bruce Braley, Quad-City Times
Background:
Grassley hasn't gone Washington, he is Washington. Anti-incumbent sentiment, his partisan record and recent statements are challenging his reelection prospects.
•Grassley's approval rating has dropped 21% over the past year. [Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll]
•Voters wanting to reelect him are tied with those wishing to replace him at 45 percent. [Iowa Poll] In 2006 and 2008 very few incumbents with reelect numbers this low won reelection; including former Senators Talent, Burns, DeWine, Chafee, Allen, Coleman, Dole, Sununu and Gordon Smith.
•Senator Grassley has not had a significant challenge since unseating Senator Culver in 1980. Many of his past supporters are tired of Washington's gridlock and yearning for someone who will fight for them. To date Roxanne has raised more money than Grassley's last four opponents combined.
Iowa's electorate is more Democratic than ever.
•Democrats acquired a voter registration edge in 2006 and expanded it in 2008. This will be Grassley's first election with a voter registration disadvantage of 104,100 votes, or roughly ten percent of expected turnout.
•Iowa's new "No Excuse" voting laws makes it easier for families to cast their ballots. It allows 40 days to cast a ballot by mail, at the Auditor's office or at a satellite location. More than 35% of Iowans voted early in 2008.
•21,900 Iowans took advantage of the state's new same-day voter registration capabilities in 2008, greatly reducing the average age of voters.
Roxanne's grassroots movement gains momentum.
Roxanne has been to 60 of Iowa's 99 counties during the past two months, meeting with energized crowds of Democratic activists, enthusiastic independents and disillusioned Republicans looking for someone to end the stalemate in Washington.
•More than 31,000 people joined the campaign online and she is gaining popularity among the netroots through numerous live-blogging events.
•In two months, Roxanne Conlin raised significantly more in contributions from individuals than Senator Grassley did during the final quarter of 2009 - ($204,202 more, to be exact).
•1,649 individuals contributed to Roxanne's campaign (85% of her contributors are Iowans).
•Grassley is running scared and recently sent a video tracker all the way to Hawaii to spy on Roxanne at a fundraiser hosted by her friends and professional colleagues. Now, his supporters are running online ads attacking her.
Conclusion:
A frustrated electorate, pervasive anti-incumbency sentiment, a Democratic registration edge and strong opponent add up to one thing: Roxanne Conlin is a viable and serious challenger to Senator Grassley this November.
